Forex Signals Brief Jan 18: Unemployment Claims Expected to Remain Stable


Forex Signals Brief January 18: US Unemployment Claims Expected to Remain Stable

Skerdian Meta•Thursday, January 18, 2024•3 min read

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Yesterday started with a round of data from China, which was sort of mixed. Industrial Production increased by 6.8% YoY, beating expectations by 2 points, while Retail Sales came at 7.4%, down from 10.1% previously and missed expectations of 7.9% as well. The GDP QoY increased from 4.9% to 5.2%, but it missed expectations of 5.3%, which left the sentiment mixed in the Asian session.

In the European session, the highlight was the UK consumer inflation report, which came above expectations, with the headline CPI YoY ticking higher to 4.0% from 3.9%  previously, while expectations were for a slowdown to 3.8%. The Core CPI also beat expectations of a slowdown to 4.9% and remained unchanged at 5.1%, which gave the GBP a boost, sending GBP/USD 100 pips higher while EUR/GBP dived lower, triggering the TP target of our sell signal.

In the US session, we saw more positive numbers from the US economy, as retail sales increased more than anticipated in December, setting the tone for the market. The December figures revealed a robust performance for the US consumer, as sales excluding vehicles grew by 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The control group, which has a direct impact on GDP, experienced an astounding 0.8% growth rate, well above the projected 0.2%, while retail sales, excluding gas and cars rose 0.6%. That kept the USD bullish until the close.

Today’s Market Expectations

The day starts with the employment report from Australia. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain constant at 3.9% in December, with 18K jobs added last month against, 61.5K in November. However, today’s numbers won’t have much effect on the RBA meeting next month but may influence market pricing.

During the European session, the calendar is light, with the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and the SNB Chairman Jordan holding a speech. However, in the US session, we have the US Jobless Claims numbers, which remain one of the most essential releases each week since it provides a more timely signal of the status of the labor market. Initial Claims continue to linger around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims, after reaching a new cycle high, have begun to decline. This week’s consensus is for Initial Claims to be 207K, up from 202K the previous week, but there is no estimate for Continuing Claims at this time, though the previous week’s total was 1834K compared to 1868K.

BTC/USD – Daily Chart 

Ethereum Bouncing Off the 50 SMA

Ethereum remains bullish overall, however, we saw a retreat yesterday, as Bitcoin also fell back below $43,000. But the price remains above moving averages which are acting as support, pushing lows upward. But last week we saw an even bigger retest which sent the price below $2,500, however, buyers returned this week, so they’re likely to reaper soon, therefore we are holding our ETH signal open.

Ethereum – Daily Chart

ETH Buy Signal
Entry Price: $1,947.38
Stop Loss: $1,490
Take Profit: $2,500

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