Forex Signals Brief January 10: Australian CPI Continues Cooling Trend


Forex Signals Brief January 10: Australian CPI Continues Cooling Trend

Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, January 10, 2024•3 min read

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Yesterday the economic calendar was light, with the retail sales from Australia being the main event, which showed a 2% increase in November, however that didn’t help the AUD which ended the day lower against a stronger USD. However there was a lot of volatility in the crypto market at the conclusion of the day, with a SEC Twitter/X announcement that Bitcoin ETFs had been approved, which propelled the price of BTC close to $48,000, before retracing its gains and falling below $45,000 after the denial. But, it closed the day above $46,000 in the end.

The SEC soon announced that the ETFs had not been approved and that the SEC Gov Twitter/X account had been hijacked, with an illegal tweet being released. Today we will have the SEC decision though, which is widely anticipated to approve the BTC ETF. However, we will see how Bitcoin and the crypto market will behave and whether there will be a sell-the-fact trade.

In other markets, the USD resumed last week’s bullish trend, with EUR/USD approaching 1.09 again and commodity dollars losing around 50 pips. Stock markets remained mostly positive, GOLD closed unchanged at the end of the day after a run higher, while crude Oil ended up higher after more issues in the Persian Gulf.

Today’s Market Expectations

This week there are many inflation releases on the calendar, starting with the Average Cash Earnings. Wage growth is critical for the Bank of Japan right now, therefore this report should be monitored closely. There is no unanimity on the figures, although the last report showed a 1.5% year-over-year increase in October, with a positive revision to the September figure.

The Chinese CPI for December will be released next. November’s report showed inflation falling below forecasts across the board, with CPI Y0Y at -0.5% (exp -0.1%), MoM at -0.5% (exp -0.1%), and PPI YoY at -3.0% (exp -2.8%). Consumer price inflation fell due to a further fall in food costs, from -4% to -4.2% Y/Y, as well as a 0.5% M/M decrease after accounting for seasonality. Energy costs declined by 2.7% month on month, leading to deflation. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, stayed at 0.6% in November.

The Australian inflation will be the highlight of the day, with the monthly CPI YoY projected to befall to 4.4%, compared to 4.9% previously. The RBA will convene in February, so they will be able to review another labour market and quarterly inflation report before deciding on a policy response. The market expects the central bank to decrease interest rates in June.

BTC/USD – Daily Chart 

Ethereum Keeps Making Higher Lows

This year, ETH/USD has reached new highs, demonstrating that the trend has been bullish throughout the year, with moving averages pushing lows higher. Buyers returned this week after a temporary retreat, but they were unable to break the previous week’s high of $2,500. On Wednesday, the price fell to $2,127, but then recovered, with the 50 SMA (yellow) functioning as support on the daily chart, and the price soared beyond $2,300.

Ethereum – Daily Chart

ETH Buy Signal
Entry Price: $1,947.38
Stop Loss: $1,490
Take Profit: $2,500

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