What’s at Risk as Half of the World’s GDP Heads Into an Election Year


Get ready for a flurry of elections in 2024 that will shape the geo-economic landscape for years to come.

Representation for nearly half the world’s population and GDP will be on the line in polls that will stoke volatility in what has been dubbed the age of polycrisis.

We’re living in “a world of global disorder” that’s different from the relative calm before Covid, says Janet Henry, chief global economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. “Compared with pre-pandemic, growth will be a bit lower, inflation will be a bit higher and we’re not going back to a zero interest-rate world,” she says.

Polls are being held in some of the world’s youngest democracies, like Pakistan and Tunisia, and in some of the oldest democracies in Europe, almost certainly including the UK, as well as the 27-nation European Union. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s re-election in March is all but certain. India is expected to return Prime Minister Narendra Modi to office. But on other ballots like in Austria or the US, the outcomes remain uncertain.

A World of Elections

Our twelve elections-to-watch, among the 40 leadership races of 2024

The results from those votes will shape public policy in every corner of the unsettled globe. Governments are re-arming as wars flare. Trade routes are being redrawn by geopolitics. Immigrants fleeing despair are greeted with the cold embrace of border police. Government debt has soared, forcing scrutiny of public spending. A climate emergency is destroying old economic opportunities and creating new ones.

On the bright side, healthy democracies have the potential to filter the good ideas — and the politicians espousing them — from the bad to benefit the majority.

The hopeful case is that lawmakers can surmount these challenges through winning over their domestic audience and stepping up to global cooperation.

The downside scenario for the model that powered world growth for decades: that voters empower a cast of characters that will exacerbate diplomatic tensions and further fragment the global economy.

“2024 is a consequential year for political risk and election uncertainty,” with Taiwan’s vote on Saturday especially important, says Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst with Bloomberg Economics. “Some, like the US election, could usher in major shifts in domestic and foreign policy. Others, like Venezuela’s planned vote, could be a catalyst for greater geopolitical friction.”

The issues most on the minds of candidates and their electorates range from the weighty — who to side with in the struggle for hegemony between the US and China — to pocketbook matters like inflation.

Below is our guide to key elections to watch and the potential in each for market or economic fallout.



This article was originally published by a www.bloomberg.com . Read the Original article here. .