When is the Fed cutting rates and what does it mean for USD?


US interest rate projections

As financial market participants speculate about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions, one of the most significant questions on traders’ minds is when the Fed will cut interest rates. Such a shift would mark the transition from the consistent rate hiking environment of the past few years to the first rate-cutting environment since the onset of the pandemic. Understanding how to project interest rate movements is crucial for traders, as it directly impacts not only the bond market but US dollar as well.

Interest rate projections are informed by a myriad of economic indicators, including employment and inflation data. These projections are not merely educated guesses but are formulated using tools like the Fed Funds futures, which reflect the collective sentiment of thousands actively trading in the futures market. For instance, if the Fed Funds futures for March 2024 are priced around $95, this suggests a market expectation of the Fed Funds rate being at 5.00%, a potential decrease from the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

The pricing of Fed Funds futures can be understood by subtracting the futures price from 100, which gives the projected Fed Funds rate after the respective month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As traders, it’s important to monitor these prices as they adjust to new economic data and geopolitical events that might influence the Fed’s decisions. For example, strong inflation data or geopolitical tensions can lead to higher rate projections, while economic crises may lead to lower projections.

Traders should also consider the broader implications of interest rate changes on currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, the U.S. dollar often strengthens due to increased demand for dollar-denominated assets that now offer higher returns. Conversely, when rate cuts are anticipated, the dollar may weaken as yields on these assets become less attractive.

The USD/JPY currency pair is a prime example of this correlation, where the dollar’s value against the yen can fluctuate significantly based on the interest rate differential between the two countries. With Japan maintaining near-zero interest rates, the dollar’s strength has been more pronounced, but as rate cut expectations for the U.S. increase, we could see the dollar’s relative strength diminish.



This article was originally published by a www.ig.com . Read the Original article here. .